How wise to follow rich nations?

Over the last decade Bangladesh's economy has developed rapidly. Its per capita income in 2012 was estimated at US$ 747.34. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country was the 44th largest economy in the world in 2012 in terms of the purchasing power parity (PPP) and 57th in the nominal terms. The gross domestic product (GDP) is currently US$ 347 billion in terms of the PPP and US$ 115.6 billion in the nominal terms with an average GDP growth rate of 6 per cent per annum over the past few years. Alike the developed countries, the service sector is the highest contributor (>50 per cent) to the GDP. Though, Bangladesh is a densely-populated country, it has a big labour force of 87.9 million people with the unemployment rate estimated at 5.0 per cent in 2012. If the pace of economic growth remains stable, then Bangladesh will emerge a middle income country very soon. However, 24 per cent people still live under the poverty line while the public debt is 22.8 per cent of the GDP and still we present a deficit budget every year and a staggering amount of money is spent on debt servicing.

The statistics shows the state of development. But truly, the meaning of development may vary depending on the thinking of each of the people. Statistics could be manipulated and the people may think the economy is founded on a good footing while actually it is not. In the book on 'Economic Development', authors Michael P. Todaro and Stephen C. Smith have mentioned three core values of development, namely, sustenance, self-esteem and freedom from servitude. They have claimed that development will be meaningful, firstly when the state can help its population meet the life-sustaining basic human needs such as food, shelter, health etc. Secondly, the general people have to have a sense of worth and self-respect, the belief of not being exploited by others. The nature and level of self-esteem may vary from society to society. Last but not least, the people should enjoy the freedom from servitude which means the independence from misery, oppressive institutions and dogmatic beliefs such as poverty is the unchangeable fate. Nobel laureate economist Amartya Sen has propound an idea of 'capability to function' where he argues that development cannot simply be measured by income or statistics, rather a person's functioning is the main factor that can help us understand the extent and meaning of development.

Unfortunately, these things cannot be easily measured or if somehow it is done, the government is not willing to do that for political reasons. Notwithstanding, the eclectic account of information of Bangladesh's economy is definitely a good sign and many organisations are now considering Bangladesh as a role model for other developing countries. American economic historian Walt W. Rostow's stages of growth model are worth mentioning. According to him, the transition from underdevelopment to development can be described in terms of a series of steps or stages, through which all countries must proceed. Presumably Bangladesh is in the pre-takeoff stage before entering the self-sustainable growth stage and he has argued that all developed countries had passed all the stages and still the developing countries are doing the same.

Now the focal point is what will be Bangladesh's course of action in this transitional period of rapid development. Institutions like the World Bank (WB) and the IMF often impose many conditions on Bangladesh along with many other developing countries before granting loans. Those conditions are set by following the growth path of developed countries. Those are often irrelevant and insignificant, when it comes to our economic environment. At this critical juncture the question arises: Do we really need to follow the path of the developed countries? Or do our transition period and their transition period have any valid resemblance?'

In this context we need to take a look at the earlier stages of currently developed countries, when they embarked on their era of modern economic growth. Contemporary developing countries are often less endowed with natural resources. Most developed countries are located in the northern hemisphere and developing and underdeveloped countries are in Asia and Africa where natural resources are scarce. The people of contemporary developing world have, on an average, a lower real per capita income that their counterparts from developed world had in the 19th century. The most developing countries are now situated in tropical and subtropical regions and most economically successful countries are in the temperate zone. The population size and density are much higher in developing nations compared to the developed countries. In fact, in no time Europe or North America had a population growth rate of 2.0 per cent per annum while the contemporary developing countries had a growth rate of more than 2.5 per cent in the recent decades. International migration, multiculturalism and import of brains from under-developed countries have enriched Europe and America. Basic scientific and technological research and development, efficacy of domestic institutions and international free trade had given the developed countries an added advantage that the contemporary developing countries do not get to that extent.

Against this backdrop, it is not wise to comply with all the conditions of the WB or IMF. This is a very important period for Bangladesh. If it can successfully take off for the next stage of Rostow's model, then it is not so far when Bangladesh's economic development will become meaningful to the country's people. Curbing corruption, keeping political stability, avoiding narrow partisan interest and wise economic decisions with effective management can make Bangladesh a middle income country in this decade, and within 2030 there will be a big change in our economy. Uncertainty exists but we must not forget that we are doing well and every cloud has a silver lining.  

This article was published in The Financial Express, Dec 09, 2013

Link: Click here

The Pursuit of Real Democracy in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is on the verge of 10^th national parliamentary election. But an ambiguousness in the constitution of this republic has been developed over the tenure of Awami League (AL) led government on the issues of interim government in election time and the maturity of the assembly. Though, the one and only valid explanator of the constitution is the Supreme Court but many a quarter including constitution specialists therefore lawyers and politicians are explaining it from different angles. The prime opposition party is holding a stubborn position about not going to elections under the current system of voting while the government is also rigid in their stance. This standoff is apparently leading us to an unexpected calamitous situation where everyone desires for peace and a peaceful transition of power.

What is happening in this country now deserves an in-depth look.  How have we come to this point is a question of general citizens, voters and obviously the civil society. Back to January 2009, Awami league came to power with a landslide victory of 230 seats among the 300 seats and with a huge popularity. The opposition, BNP, had virtually no power in the parliament with few public representatives to interfere in the government’s actions of passing laws or changing sections of constitution. Although it was a big blunder, but the opposition chose to leave the house and occupied the streets. Nobody is concluding that the government, in and out of the parliament, did all wrong with the huge power but the list of mistakes or corruptions is not short as well. The AL led government has contributed a lot in the development of the country in different sectors like electricity, gas, agriculture, education, production and so forth that our country has ever seen. The construction of fly-overs in Dhaka city within a single term is highly commendable. The achievements of sea area after the suit with Myanmar, huge amount of free supply of books in primary school level are some of the accomplishments of the government. From a political valuation, the handling of the situation after BDR mutiny, the settlement of Hifazat’s long march and their Dhaka occupying movement, the rigid position against radicalism is highly admirable success of the government. The implementation of justice in Bangabondhu assassination case, the revival of war crime tribunal and arresting of the alleged criminals are some valiant step of the AL government. On the other hand, the flacks against government are often too severe. World Bank- Padma Bridge, Weak diplomatic negotiations with India, quick rental, stock market scandal, Hallmark- Sonali bank scam, Rampal power plant, Teesta-Tipaimukh dam are few to name from a long list of accusations. Now the time of election has come and it is the choice and responsibility of the citizens and voters to value the success and failures of government and opposition, determine the political parties’ competence and most importantly to send a party to power for next five years to run the country.

Parliament House of Bangladesh (A symbol of democracy)

To focus the opposition party, they left the government in a playground with no rivalry. They felt comfortable in the streets and in the talk-shows instead of parliament. They chose to stick to a party of alleged war criminals and remained silent in the times of moral crises. There are lots of examples where they showed violence instead of wisdom. They didn’t stand against the government with the national issues like they stood up for their narrow partisan interest. Even in some cases, they failed to capture the public sentiment while government was in a backward situation. From a bird’s eye view, the opposition wasn’t careful enough to resist the government from their autocratic moves.

Hence, for the currently ongoing political deadlock, both the government and the opposition are equally responsible. The government has changed the constitution legitimately and the election time is very near now. However, it is very understandable that without the participation of BNP the election will not be fair and acceptable. And as a developing country we cannot afford that type of election and reelection again; what the current opposition and the then government, BNP, showed us before in 1996. The politicians do not have a good experience with unelected caretaker government after infamous 1/11. But the formula that the AL government has developed is not a perfect one. And it has become almost impossible for the government to revert the changes made in the constitution. So, whatever the acceptable solution is must come out from a participative dialogue. It is also to remember that, all power including the vote, in a democracy, is held by general public. Hence, powerful neighbors or third parties have nothing to determine the fate of this country. But unfortunately, both the parties are acting very rigid and childish which will bring no good for the future.

A real democracy is where the parliament holds a balance. For instance a 170/130 or similar wining makes a balance of power. What our voters do is not to vote for the candidate rather they vote for the logo or the memories of iconic leaders or the party. This happened in 2001 and again in 2009. That’s the exact reason why democratic political parties become autocratic and a weaker opposition occupies the street and takes the path of violence. Whatever the situation has lately been developed in our country must not be solved by bloodshed or machetes. Wisdom, toleration and an intention to sacrifice are expected from all political parties, smaller or bigger.

In the 43 years of liberation, we experienced assassination, military coup, unelected government, bloodshed, attack and resilience. We want to believe that the time of darkness has been over. In this decade our generations are dreaming of a bright future and holding passions to go forward. In this context, we implore to the political parties not to hold our back but to show a bit of wisdom and sagacity. The path of going forward is not smooth; don’t make it worse anymore, please. 

October 25, 2013

This article is directly uploaded to [www.asifreza.blogspot.com]

Don’t destroy the Sundarbans

Authorities all over the world are continuously justifying their wrongdoings in the name of the greater good. This time, the Sundarbans has become the victim of that notion.The mangrove forest is about to be sacrificed in the name of the greater good but at a price that we cannot afford. It was not long ago that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina strongly accused developed countries for their contribution to global warming and urged them to compensate the sufferers, i.e. developing countries like Bangladesh, but now she has signed the death verdict on the Sundarbans.

The human race has been honoured with the highest dignity not just because of its independent thinking but for its ability to take care of wildlife, nature and the environment. But the intentional destruction of the Sundarbans is not only a suicidal move, it is also a violation of natural laws. It will make Bangladesh more vulnerable than we can imagine. The Sundarbans, shared by Bangladesh and India, and the largest mangrove forest in the world, is an enclosure for the coastal areas and gives the country protection from major natural calamities, such as past hurricanes like Sidr and Aila.

It is enriched with huge natural resources and is a safe-house of diverse wildlife. Most importantly, it is a natural holder of the ecological balance and our ecosystem. It provides livelihood to a great number of local inhabitants. In spite of all this, the government is advancing to install a coal-based thermal power plant of 1,320 MW capacity which will occupy almost 768 hectares of land and is barely 9km away from the Sundarbans.

Though, the government is considering this as a safe distance, the partner of this project, India, has passed its own law where they are not allowed to install such plants within the 25km radius of forests in their territory. Ironically, they are doing just that in our homeland and our government is acting like our resources belong to India, not to us. If this plant is installed, a huge amount of coal will be transported through the Possur River. The noise pollution and other waste produced from the plant will damage the biodiversity substantially. The fish in the confluence of the rivers will face extinction. The area will become uninhabitable, and the air will be so polluted that no living creature will be able to breathe there. The water of the rivers will be contaminated. The climate, topography, faunal and floral diversity will be destroyed. Allegedly, the materials which will be used in the plant contain hazardous chemicals such as sulphur, carbon dioxide, cadmium, radium, arsenic, lead, mercury and nickel.

These toxic chemicals could affect the health of the inhabitants, even those living in government-certified safe areas. According to rough estimations, this plant will immediately displace about 5,000 families from their land. A large number of forest-dependent poor people like honey-collectors and fishermen will get unemployed. The Sundarbans is a tourist attraction, a sector which will take a hit once the project starts.

Mangrove forest and it faunal diversity

Many studies have already been done by different think-tanks, researchers and journalists but no one could credibly claim that the benefit of this plant will outweigh the costs. It is true that our demand will increase day by day, but that does not mean that we should destroy all our natural treasures just to satiate our demands. There are many other viable options to produce energy. Solar power, windmills and biogas are options. The Sundarbans are unique and irreplaceable. As a lower riparian country and with low lands, we are vulnerable to coastal floods, cyclones and hurricanes. Without the Sundarbans our people cannot survive. We Bangladeshis are very good at seeing the near future and short-term benefits which cause us to lag behind other nations. It is high time we gained some wisdom. We must act before it is too late. Protesters of the initiative have been labelled “impractical” and “anti-development” by ministers and government advisers.

Other than the Hasina administration, not a single person has supported the idea of generating power at the cost of the destruction of the Sundarbans. This project will bring no benefit to our unborn generations, and the Sundarbans is not just an asset of Bangladesh, it belongs to the world. It is a world heritage site and the home of the world-famous endangered Royal Bengal Tiger. I implore all Bangladeshis as well as the world community to not turn a blind eye on this issue, but to listen to their conscience.

This is a time of moral crisis.

The article has been published in The Dhaka Tribune/ Op-ed/ Oct 12, 2013

 Link: Click Here for newspaper version

** Photographs are copied from Internet.